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| March 1998 |
The
Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry |
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I.
Background of Hedge Funds
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| I.(a)
Characteristics of Hedge Funds |
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Hedge funds
first came into existence on January 1, 1949 when Alfred W. Jones
opened an equity fund that was organized as a private partnership
to provide maximum latitude and flexibility in constructing a portfolio.
He took both long and short positions in securities to increase
returns while reducing net market exposure and used leverage to
further enhance the performance. Today the term hedge fund takes
on a much broader context, as many of the hedge funds control risk
by hedging one or more methods, but many do not. Hedge funds are
broadly defined by(1) their structural characteristics,
rather than their "hedged" nature. There are several characteristics
common to most hedge funds.
First, hedge
funds are primarily private investment vehicles and therefore exempt
from some of the SECs regulatory requirements. The legal structure
of the fund provides hedge fund managers with broad discretion over
investment styles and asset classes. Hedge funds can take both long
and short positions, make concentrated investments, use leverage,
use derivatives and invest in many markets. This is in sharp contrast
to mutual funds which are highly regulated and do not have the same
breadth of investment instruments at their disposal. A hedge fund
need not employ all of the tools all of the time, it merely has
them at its disposal to meet the objective of achieving absolute
maximum returns.
Second, hedge
funds utilize a performance based fee (allocation) structure. Hedge
fund managers are rewarded primarily in proportion to the profitability
of the funds investments (typically 20% of profits). Many times
a hurdle rate of return must be achieved or any previous losses
recouped before the performance fee is paid. The reward system tends
to encourage the hedge fund managers to achieve maximum returns.
Most hedge funds also include a management fee based on a percentage
of assets under management (typically 1-2%). This fee structure
is again in sharp contrast to the mutual fund industry, where fees
are based solely on assets under management.
Third, in
addition to managing the fund as a general partner, the fund manager
is generally an investor in the fund as a limited partner. The size
of his investment can range anywhere from a 1% share up to a significant
majority interest. Most hedge fund managers commit a large portion
of their wealth to the funds in order to align their interest with
that of other investors. Since managers tend to be significant investors
in their own fund and keep a significant portion of their performance
fees in the fund, they share in both the upside and downside of
the fund returns. It appears that in hedge funds, the destination
of managers and investors are the same and the nature of the relationship
is one of true partnership.
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| I.(b)
Investment Styles of Hedge Funds |
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There are many
different investing styles and strategies of hedge funds, some of
which are quite unique. A number of hedge fund industry groups,
consultants and information providers attempt to aggregate hedge
funds into specific styles. While each organization has its own
categorization scheme, a review of several sources (2)
yields the following list of styles most commonly included:
Exhibit
1
Investment Styles of Hedge Funds
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Investment
Styles
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Definition
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Market
Neutral
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50%
short, 50% long
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Convertible
Arbitrage
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Long
convertible security. Short underlying equity
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Global
Macro
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Focus
on global macroeconomic changes
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Growth
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Look
for growth potential in earnings and revenues
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Value
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Invest
based on assets, cash flow, book value
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Sector
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Focus
on particular economic or industry sectors
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Distressed
Securities
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Invest
in companies undergoing reorganization or in bankruptcy
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Emerging
Markets
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Invest
in emerging foreign market equity and debt
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Opportunitistic
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Trading
oriented, takes advantage of market trends and events
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Leverage
Bonds
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Employ
leverage to invest in fixed income instruments
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Short
Only
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Takes
short positions only
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Source:
MAR/HEDGE
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| I.(c)
Investment Performance of Hedge Funds |
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Investors
decide to invest in hedge funds for a variety of reasons, but several
studies reveal that the single most important reason for investing
in hedge funds is to earn a superior return. Investors, both private
and institutional, feel that hedge funds ability to pursue
a variety of investing options (short, leverage, concentrated positions,
etc.) provide greater possibility of outstanding returns. The ability
of hedge funds to outperform mutual funds or the market is very
much at the forefront of media attention. It is well documented
that individual funds can indeed perform exceptionally well.
Various studies
have been conducted to evaluate the performance of hedge funds(3).
Each of the different investment styles of hedge funds has its own
risk and return profile. Generally speaking, the studies conclude
that hedge funds as a group do provide higher and superior returns
on average compared to the S&P 500 and mutual funds. However,
there are some concerns regarding the validity of each study. A
central question relates to the make-up of the sample, size of the
funds, the survivorship effect, and the self-selection bias of the
funds reporting results. Reporting of the data on hedge funds is
voluntary and therefore, no one source is comprehensive. However,
the differences between different studies also seem to get smaller
over time which increases the significance of the results. Based
on the studies available, the long-term average performance of hedge
funds as a group can be estimated to be in the range of 17-20%,
several percentage points higher than traditional equity returns
(4) .
The volatility
of hedge funds, as measured by standard deviation, varies greatly
as a function of the strategy pursued. Some of the strategies, such
as market neutral are designed to be low in volatility while others,
such as short only or global macro funds, are highly volatile. However,
the data indicates that a long-term standard deviation of a diversified
pool of hedge funds as a group is very similar to the standard deviation
of the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index. The exhibit
below compares the performance of hedge funds as a group against
a variety of other instruments (5).
Exhibit
2
Risk & Reward Comparisons
Hedge Funds vs. Traditional Assets
(1986-1995)

Source:
Cottier
Another motivation
for private and institutional investors to include hedge funds as
part of their investment portfolios is diversification benefit.
In addition to their ability to generate higher returns, hedge funds
show a low historic correlation to traditional investments. Because
of their flexibility to use a full range of investment instruments
and techniques, hedge fund returns are somewhat independent of the
ups and downs of the market. The low correlation of hedge funds
with traditional instruments has emerged as one of the key advantages
for investors, especially institutional investors.
The correlation
of hedge funds to the S&P 500 and Lehman bond indexes are shown
in the Exhibit below. These results were obtained by Dr. Matthias
Bekier and his group at the University of St. Gallen(4).
Again, there may be some reservation about the validity of these
conclusions as only a limited set of data was used over a one year
time horizon.
Exhibit
3
Correlation of Hedge Funds to Traditional Investments
(as measured by r2)

Source:
Bekier
Correlation
coefficients are usually measured in terms of r-squared. Bekiers
analysis shows that more than 70% of hedge funds have correlation
coefficients with the S&P 500 and Lehman bond indexes below
0.3 which is considered to be a statistically insignificant correlation.
An r-squared of 1.0 represents perfect correlation while a r-squared
of 0.0 represents no correlation.
In summary,
hedge funds as a group seem to offer higher returns with average
volatility and have a low correlation with traditional investments.
Based on Modern Portfolio Theory, it is possible for investors to
boost returns while simultaneously lowering volatility by including
hedge funds in their optimum portfolio versus a portfolio constructed
exclusively with traditional instruments like stocks and bonds.
It is our view that as investors become more and more sophisticated
and become aware of these performance characteristics, they will
allocate a larger portion of their investment assets to hedge funds.
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| I.
(d) Hedge Fund Investors |
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While hedge
funds are largely exempt from SEC regulation, there are some specific
limits placed on the number and types of investors they may accept.
Only "accredited" investors are eligible to invest in
hedge funds. "Accredited" individuals must (1) be "sophisticated
investors" capable of assessing the risks inherent in unregulated
alternative investments and (2) have over $1 million in investable
assets. For institutions to be considered "accredited"
they must have over $5 million in investable assets. Furthermore,
current hedge fund partnerships are limited to 99 partners (a new
exemption to this rule allows partnerships of up to 499 investors).
Of those 99 investors/partners, no more than 35 can be non-accredited
investors.
Due to these
restrictions, the universe of hedge fund investors is effectively
limited to two specific groups: High Net Worth private individuals
and institutional investors (including pension and benefit plans,
endowments and foundations, insurance companies, banks and corporations)
(4,5,6). The exhibit below illustrates the distribution
of hedge fund assets by investor group.
Exhibit
4
Hedge Fund Assets by Investor Type

Source: KPMG Survey, Bekier,
Cottier
By far the
largest group of hedge fund investors is affluent private individuals.
It is estimated that this group represents more than 80% of hedge
fund assets. In fact, through the 1980s, investors in hedge funds
were almost exclusively high net worth private investors. In the
1990s, this circle began to expand and institutional investors started
to participate in hedge funds.
Private investors
dominate hedge funds because they are more willing to pursue higher
absolute returns and to bear the higher risk associated with those
higher returns. This group consists primarily of high net worth
individuals (defined as those with annual income in excess of $100,000
and net worth in excess of $1,000,000). Family offices and trust
departments of private banks are also included in this grouping
as their primary role is to manage the fortunes of wealthy individuals
and families.
While this
group may be a rather small slice of the overall population, they
control over one third of the estimated $15 trillion in household
financial assets in the United States (7). During the
1990s, the high net worth market has grown at almost twice
the rate of the general population. The primary sources of wealth
creation have been initial public offerings (IPOs), creation and
sales of businesses, merger and acquisition activity and the expansion
of stock options as compensation. In the US, there are now nearly
2 million "accredited" household investors with investable
assets over $1 million. This group controls about $5.3 trillion
of financial assets. The Exhibit below shows the high-net worth
market size and share of household financial assets by different
wealth groups (8) .
Exhibit
5
The High Net Worth Market
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Investable
Financial Assets
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Number
of Households
(000s)
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Percentage
of Total Households
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Discretionary
Financial Assets (billions)
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Percentage
Share of Total Household Assets
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>$500,000
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4,500
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4.5%
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$7,800
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52%
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>$1,000,000
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2,000
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2.0%
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$5,300
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36%
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>$5,000,000
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125
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0.1%
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$1,700
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12%
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Source: Sanford C. Bernstein
It is estimated
that institutional investors represent less than 20% of hedge fund
assets. Institutional investors include pension and benefit plans,
insurance companies, non-profit organizations such as foundations
and endowments and other organizations such as corporations and
banks. The strict fiduciary responsibilities of many institutional
investors and their sometimes bureaucratic investment decision making
process has made them slower to adopt hedge funds. Media attention
to specific instances of high returns and high variability of returns
has created an impression of high risk.
Pension plans
are subject to ERISA and the legal doctrine of the "prudent
man" rule. The combination of the perceived riskiness of hedge
funds and their fiduciary requirements has caused pension plans
to be very cautious in their allocation to hedge fund investments.
Insurance companies are regulated by state insurance authorities
and generally are limited in their investment allocations to limited
partnerships. Foundations and endowments on the other hand, have
more investment autonomy and were one of the first institutional
investor groups to embrace hedge funds.
Although
the participation of institutional investors in hedge funds is small,
they represent an important segment. Institutional investors as
a group control almost twice the assets available for investment
than high net worth investors. In the US, at the end of 1996, they
had total investable assets of over $11.1 trillion (9)
compared to the $5.3 trillion of "accredited" private
investors. The largest group of institutional investors, by asset
size, is pension and retirement plans. They are followed by insurance
companies. Third place is occupied by non-profit organizations which
include private foundations and endowments. Exhibit 6 below, shows
the US institutional capital pool by major investor category along
with their historical compounded annual growth rates (9) .
Exhibit
6
U.S. Institutional Balance Sheet
(dollars in billions)
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1990
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1996
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CAGR
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Pension
Funds
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$2,740
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$5,487
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12.2%
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Insurance
Co.
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$1,663
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$2,846
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9.3%
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Non-Profit
Org.
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$494
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$922
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10.9%
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Non-Financial
Co.
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$588
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$1,024
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9.6%
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TOTAL
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$5,485
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$10,279
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Source:
Putman, Lovell & Thornton
Although
hedge funds are offered globally, the US market is the single most
significant one measured by the assets contributed. US managers
control almost three quarters of the global assets. We estimate
that at the end of 1996, the global assets of hedge funds were approximately
$170 billion. The table below estimates the total amount invested
by various groups and the corresponding allocation rates for hedge
funds for these segments of investors.
Exhibit
7
Breakout of Investments and Allocation Rates
Global Hedge Funds
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Investor
Group
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Estimated
Hedge Fund Investment
(billions)
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Estimated
Allocation Rates
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High
Net Worth
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$140.0
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1.60%
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Pension
Funds
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$8.5
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0.08%
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Insurance
Co.
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$1.7
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0.03%
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Non-Profit
Org.
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$13.6
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1.17%
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Others
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$6.8
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0.14%
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Source: RRCM & KPMG
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